Giuliani can win without S.C., campaign says

Top campaign advisers to Republican presidential candidate Rudy Giuliani said the former New York City mayor is in good shape to win the GOP nomination, even if he does not win any of the early-voting states, including South Carolina.

Doing well in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina is important, said campaign manager Michael DuHaime, but the number of states that have moved up their primaries -- many to Feb. 5 -- makes this year different than past elections.

"It's impossible to think it will be over after only three states vote," DuHaime told reporters on a conference call.

DuHaime discounted the idea that someone, particularly former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, could build unstoppable momentum by sweeping early-voting states. In 2000, he noted, President George W. Bush and U.S. Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., traded early states before Bush won the nomination.

Romney leads polling in Iowa and New Hampshire, and is in a statistical dead heat with Giuliani and former Tennessee U.S. Sen. Fred Thompson in South Carolina.

Florida, California, New Jersey, Connecticut and Delaware are among the early states that Giuliani is counting on, DuHaime said. Florida is scheduled to vote Jan. 29, while the rest are slated to vote Feb. 5.

DuHaime also noted that many states where Giuliani is running strong awards their delegates winner-take-all, while other states, including New Hampshire and South Carolina, award their delegates based on Congressional districts or percent of support.

The difference, DuHaime said, is that Giuliani is the only candidate that can count on winning blocks of delegates on Feb. 5. Those delegates could include several hundred of the roughly 1,200 a candidate needs to win the GOP nomination.

"Some of those leads are momentum-proof," DuHaime said of polls, especially in Northeastern states. "This very much lines up very favorably for us."

Comments

[spenser]

Guiliani is behind in the polls in New Hampshire & Iowa. South Carolina doesn't look good for him either. I the real world, never in the history of the election process has a nominee ever failed to win at least one of those states and leading candidates who failed to win any of the three ultimately lost the nomination.

But Guiliani has never been confused with being grounded in reality.