S.C. Politics Live

10:45 Summary

By way of general background, white South Carolinians are the substantial majority of South Carolina majority. Black Republican membership remain low and stable. In the short term, some findings from the trend survey of the University of South Carolina's Institute of Public Affairs and Policy Research suggest some downtrend in Republican identification by white Strong Republicans that leads to more Independent identification. Part of the task of these candidates is to stop this trend before it extends.

There was plenty of ammunition to restore SC Republicans from the candidates. Ron Paul is on one wing with Giuliani on the other wing. Thompson is maybe next to Paul; Huckabee next to Giuliani with Romney and McCain in the ideological middle. In this debate, Thompson brought the conservative challenge to Huckabee.

To the extent that Huckabee was the leader going in; Thompson gained at his expense. Paul didn't expand his constituency, but Giuliani may have added a bit to his at the expense of Romney perhaps more than McCain. Giuliani's tax plan is the difference for appeal to conservatives to step over Romney.

The Winthrop University-ETV poll identified three types of SC Republicans linked to region: (1) social conservatives in the Upstate around Greenville and Spartanburg who have a major emphasis on social issues followed by defense. Bob Jones' endorsement will help Romney here to dilute the rumor mills about Mormonism; (2) Midlands Republicans that emphasize defense as noted before; and lowcountry (Coastal and Pee Dee) Republicans who what a small government and tax cuts.

This discussion was a idea banquet for SC Republicans. They will digest the discussion over the next few days just like "a meat and three with a little iced tea (sweetened, of course). The nominating fortune of no one candidate may be derived from tonight in my opinion. This process will go on and South Carolina will not be a firewall or a make or break for any one of the six. There is not a Bill Richardson among them until after February 5.

There are many interpretations to move ahead on: (1) winning or losing in SC and the effect on subsequent primaries--in my opinion not to be resolved until Feb. 5; (2) counting up the places--a kind of ranking system, for example, one first place and one third place = 2 second place--equal bragging rights; (3) summing up the vote...I think Romney has the highest overall total right now--another bragging point.

And there is the all important delegate count: about 1100 delegates are needed for a majority. More primaries will give a clearer estimate of the delegates. Ultimately, delegates won will tell the tale.

10:40 Immigration

My imaginary applause meter gave immigration as an issue the highest response. Romney's plan came in first among the candidates in the audience response. Applause for Paul's "our border guards are in Iraq" outstripped Thompson's high fence, open or shut gate approach. Response to McCain was lukewarm but didn't seem to raise negatives. Huckabee and Giuliani defended their apparent more accepting approaches with no overt negative audience reaction.

Immigration is a relatively new issue in SC. The state did not experience the great waves of European immigration over the last century. Few Vietnamese were settled here. The large presence of Hispanics is evident in SC today, giving rise to issues like labor force, language instruction in school, housing, and a host of domestic issues. South Carolina has traditionally mobilized to face external threats; the reaction to immigration illustrates the newness of this issue in SC and its sensitivity for the Republican agenda.

10:15 Washington Headaches

Romney just hit a nerve with his reference to "Lizard's Thicket." This is a fine local business of several restaurants around Columbia that preserves the "meat and three vegetables" tradition. Ms. Jackson's "Sunset Restaurant" over in West Columbia has the same reputation. This brings Washington home. If Romney knows about good eating in SC, how can Washington corrupt him?

Governor Huckabee is getting a blister raised with a question and discussion about his experience as Arkansas governor. He is stressing that he had to make decisions, "make things work," as opposed to legislators who listen to discussion and the vote often without having to shoulder individual responsibility. This lowers his discomfort a bit and shifts it back to his accusor of liberalism, Senator Thompson. It really looks like Thompson wants to cut into Huckabee's support, perhaps to stake out a third place vote in SC.

Mayor Giuliani explains "change" advocates by Democrats in negative terms, namely as change for the worse with sharp changes in policy in Iraq, health care, and tax policy. McCain who could feel attacked by Giuliani's discussion smoothed it over with claims of admiration for the mayor.

The gender vote comes into play with Huckabee's defense of the "submissive wife" statement from the past. He turned into a 100-100 proposition and the audience gave him a rousing applause...an appeal to and a response from social conservatives.

Part of these discussions and these primaries is to winnow out candidates. Paul just got the why do you think you can get elected question? Now the external threat theories...borrowing from China, etc...come out. It sounds like about 10-15 percent of the audience applauded...a standoff for Paul and, if my estimate of applause is even close, may suggest more support for Paul here than polls suggest.

Winnowing the candidate field is a challenge today. There may be two or three scenarios for the preference primaries. One is the traditional key state in major regions approach: Nevada now in the West; New Hampshire in the East; Iowa in the Midwest; and SC in the South. The suggestion was as the key state went so would the rest of the states in the region. Now with February 5 having some twenty plus states voting, an all vote at one time scenario may be emerging. Thus, SC may not winnow any candidates this time as its reputation from the past. Even with internet contributions, it may be possible to bridge to February 5 this round. A third scenario may be to vote by region, say four major regions with all states in the region voting.

9:45 The Middle East

Opening question about the speedboats near US Navy ships in international waters near Iran. Huckabee and Thompson got the best phrases to appeal to South Carolinians: "show them the gates of Hell," and "help them see the virgins they want to see."

All defended the President and the field naval commanders. Paul was different, suggesting more caution and raising the memory of the Gulf of Tonkin from the Vietnam era. Process comes to the fore here. No candidate really rises to the image of commander-in-chief, a disappointment for McCain supporters. Romney got mixed audience response with a jab a Paul for being too open to the Iranian version of events.

Underlying this discussion is the importance of national defense and related issues in South Carolina. Midlands GOP votes have much interest in defense issues with Fort Jackson, McEntire National Air Guard Base, and Shaw Air Force Base all in the vicinity. Lowcountry voters around the Charleston Air Force facilities and Beaufort Marine facility also have an interest in defense.

Now McCain has on his leadership face again and asserts his difference from Bush/Rumsfeld and his confidence in military field commanders. He sees the surge as a success and the potential for honorable reduction of US military presence in the area.

President Bush 43 is now in the Middle East attempting to broker a broad peace agreement. Giuliani gets the question and cites Reagan's "trust but verify." Then he allies with McCain as a supporter of the surge to McCains dismay. Back to demeanor, when Giuliani claimed equal status with McCain on support for the surge and criticism of Rumsfeld, McCain gave Giuliani a glance that would blanch that R. Lee Ermey marine corps drill instructor character on the cable channel "Mail Call" show. McCain give Paul the same jab and dismissive grin. Paul is playing to the crowd. He flustered McCain who reversed the "casualties" and "presence" contrast at the start. But, McCain quickly recovered and won the point by pointing to reduced casualties.

Thompson got the keep the Pakistani president in power question and used it to slam polling and the New York Times as barometers of US policy. He raised the Pakistani nuclear capability and what will happen with change.

This discussion of foreign policy in the middle east is taking over the previous treatment about the economy. This will appeal to informed South Carolinians--the underlying business, lobbying, cosmopolitan part of the Republican electorate. Romney is delivering an educational response, almost as if he were a consultant to a SC corporation contemplating investing in the Islamic world.

Huckabee gets the corruption in funding for fighting terrorism question. This gives him the tie to the more locally oriented Republican voter interested in righting Washington corruption. Paul is getting the short end of the stick from Huckabee who passionately contradicts Paul's contention that we should not be in the Middle East. Huckabee supports Israel; Paul says we treat Israel like a stepchild. Paul is losing this one...now Giuliani weighs with support for Israel.

Thompson upbraids Huckabee for a naive assessment of miitary spending in Pakistan.
Mid-term assessment: Thompson is more animated, more of a participant than I expected...somewhat like a sleeping uncle who came alive to explain some things; McCain and Romney are solid and in their usual characters. I would dread being a first year cadet for an upperclassman McCain, but would appreciate it if I made the grade. What parent would not claim Romney as the ideal offspring? Huckabee is alert with the quip; Ron Paul is his old self, somewhat on the edge, but interesting to talk to. Mayor Giuliani chimes in when he can, but he is struggling to get grounded with this crowd. His feistiness is showing, but so is his working to fit in.

9:30 The Reagan Coalition and Other Topics

Governor Huckabee and Senator McCain both connected to Reagan principles...each claiming to have been part of the fundamental movement. This is popular in SC. Governor Romney got the third question in this round that deals with abortion. He turned it back onto a discussion of the Reagan coalition and how he would continue it.

Thompson steps in to talk about the Reagan Revolution unprompted. He used it to separate Huckabee from the Reagan camp. Thompson says Huckabee is ok on tax cuts and national defense, but too liberal on everything else...a laundry list of Democratic Party leanings that would lead to countless charges in a bill of indictment on "Law and Order." Huckabee is disarming by saying he is a target and therefore has credibility. Huckabee compared his record as governor positively to Reagan's experience as governor. Thompson showed some spirit and energy in his statement; Huckabee his usual answer with guarded humor.

Looking back at it, Senator McCain seems a little tired, not very animated. This detracts from an upbeat demeanor. Candidates seem to be appealing to Reagan's "optimism" as an antidote to the Democrat's appeal to "change."

Mayor Giuliani defends his record as a Reagan loyalist, having been hired as US attorney when Reagan was President.

Congressman Paul deflected the "conspiracy" question about national disaster and turned the discussion back to the Reagan coalition. This time he is much clearer to fiscal conservatives.

Collectively, the candidates are all embracing Reagan, maybe Huckabee, Thompson, and Giuliani more enthusiastically. But, McCain and Romney did too without typing themselves as proponents of the past. And, Paul clearly appealed to the limited government base. The Reagan principles of strong defense, fiscal restraint in government spending and growth, and the need to cut taxes are firmly endorsed by all six.

This will warm the hearts of South Carolina Republicans. It allows them to reach deep, bridge over the Bush experiences, and start positively and energetically in an open seat in a different set of economic, social, and international circumstances.

9:10 Economics

     The first round of questions deals with the economy. Governor Romney answered straightforwardly if generally and offered market oriented solutions to looming economic conditions in the country. Senator McCain voiced the "no quick fix" alternative, but asserted that he was the one to make things happen...especially by cutting government...a popular topic in SC and a good appeal to SC Libertarians and fiscal conservatives.

Governor Huckabee commended the President...perhaps to link to the established Bush support in SC, however shrunk. Mayor Giuliani defended his proposed tax cuts, but was a little vague about how tax cuts paid for themselves. He differentiated himself from the Bush approach...an appeal to Independents, some Ron Paul or Senator Thompson supporters and fiscal conservatives as well.

     One aspect of these debates or discussion sessions or forums, depending on how one defines them, is the demeanor or mood or style of the candidates. What does one see when looking into the eyes of the individual and assessing the confidence with which one speaks and the mood of the response to contradictions from others. In other words, conviction, competence, and composure.

     Just on the first round: Conviction: Paul, Romney, McCain;  Competence: Romney, McCain;  Composure: Giuliani, Thompson, McCain.

      Now, back to the discussion...my eyes already clouded over with the Ron Paul explanation...How many people read or know about the Austrian economic school?  Mayor Giuliani added to the cloudiness with an appeal to economic reality that seemed to be filtered through one of those old type window panes that are not quite clear. Senator Thompson is bogging down with appeals to 2001 legislation that expires sometime down the line.

     All in all, no damage in the discussion on economics. Huckabee, McCain, Romney seemed most confident and clear. The other candidates are there as well, but not much about change or how specifically to deal with the current economic conditions other than cutting government.

9:03 Preliminaries

It is always with some reservation that I start commenting on political events. Traditionally, in public conversation, one only reluctantly discusses politics and certainly not religion for fear of offending unknown numbers for a long time. But, times have changed and politics are seemingly more present in our everyday life. So, here goes with talk about politics with apologies in advance.

The opening scene is a call for unity with the introduction by the party chairperson and the singing of the National Anthem. The themes of openness and party unity reflect the importance of South Carolina in the nominating process as envisioned by SC Republican leaders.

The host, Britt Hume, recited the rules and introduced the candidates.

So, to get things going, the Darlings (the candidates) are back in town and Sheriff Andy and the citizens of Mayberry (the SC Republican and Independent voters) are on alert to see what they are up to.

Live tonight: Blease Graham blogs from the GOP presidential debate

Return to this site this evening as Blease Graham, USC political science professor, blogs live during the GOP presidential debate in Myrtle Beach, starting at 9 p.m.